There’s an old saying in Washington: never believe anything until it’s been officially denied. And now that David Sacks—dubbed the AI czar in the Trump administration—has declared that “there will be no federal bailout for AI,” we can begin speculating about what that bailout might look like when it happens.

It turns out that the chief financial officer of the AI giant OpenAI has already floated an idea of what such a rescue could involve. In a recorded interview with the Wall Street Journal, Sarah Friar said the sector would need federal guarantees to enable the massive investments required for the United States to lead in AI development and deployment. Friar later clarified her remarks in a LinkedIn post after Sacks reacted, saying she had “muddied” the point by using the word “backstop,” and that she meant that AI leadership would require government involvement. That aligns more closely with what she said in the WSJ interview.

You might wonder: why would the hottest industry in the world—flush with hundreds of billions in investor funding—need a federal rescue at all? Notably, AI expert and commentator Gary Marcus predicted ten months ago that the AI sector would seek a government bailout to compensate for overspending, poor commercial decisions, and massive future commitments it is unlikely to meet. For example, in a recent podcast hosted by one of OpenAI’s outside investors, CEO Sam Altman appeared uncomfortable when asked how a company with only 13 billion dollars in annual revenue and ongoing losses could meet 1.4 trillion dollars of spending obligations over the coming years. Altman did not actually answer the question.

So what justification might the AI industry craft to secure government support, loan guarantees, grants, or other forms of assistance? For years, one of the most reliable ways to get Washington’s attention has been to say some variation of “China is bad… China must be beaten.” And that’s exactly what Altman has been telling reporters. But that does not explain why OpenAI specifically should be the recipient of federal aid over any other company.

In what appears to be an attempt to contain the fallout, Altman wrote on X that OpenAI is not seeking direct federal support, then later explained how the government could provide indirect help by building numerous public data centers that could be leased to AI firms—allowing them to avoid bearing the full capital costs themselves.

Perhaps I’m mistaken, and what we’re seeing is not an early negotiation between the AI sector and Washington over what a bailout might look like. And lest anyone think this industry has operated so far without government help, the Associated Press notes that more than 30 U.S. states already offer incentives to attract data centers. Not everyone is pleased to have these facilities in their communities. These centers have driven up electricity costs as utilities and consumers compete with data centers for supply, while utility companies request funding to build additional capacity to power them. In effect, current electricity customers are underwriting the expansion of AI data centers by paying for new power plants and transmission lines.

The deeper problem is that AI, in its current form, appears constrained by structural limitations that will prevent it from taking over many human tasks and from being embedded in critical systems (because it makes too many mistakes). The extraordinary claims made by AI boosters are thoroughly dismantled in a lengthy critique by Ed Zitron.

I increasingly see AI as a boondoggle—a term that Dictionary.com defines as “a wasteful or pointless project carried out for political, commercial, or personal gain.” So far, the AI sector fits that definition quite well. But I’ll borrow a broader interpretation from Dmitry Orlov, author of Reinventing Collapse: a modern boondoggle should not only be useless, but ideally should also create additional problems that can only be solved by new, equally pointless projects—such as the need for massive new electricity capacity that may later prove unnecessary if AI turns out to be far less useful than advertised. The boosters say AI will have a massive impact on society. I agree completely—but not in the way they imagine.

Nickel prices fell on Monday as the dollar strengthened against most major currencies, with traders returning to Federal Reserve policy bets.

Bank forecasts on metals

Goldman Sachs said in a research note published last month that copper prices are expected to remain within a range of 10,000 to 11,000 dollars per metric ton in 2026 and 2027 due to a market surplus, although the long-term outlook for industrial metals remains positive.

The bank pointed to three key factors that could limit the upside potential for copper prices:

Chinese buyers may scale back purchases if prices rise above 11,000 dollars per ton, as occurred in the second quarter of 2024.

A surplus in U.S. inventories, which could quickly help rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange narrow.

An overestimation of data-center-related demand, which may have been lower than initial projections.

Goldman: Indonesian producers’ margins will dictate nickel’s path

On the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said Indonesian producers’ profit margins need to fall further in order to curb supply growth and reverse the ongoing market surplus.

The bank expects nickel prices to decline by 6% to reach 14,500 dollars per metric ton by December 2026.

Aluminum market seen in surplus, with prices returning to current levels only by 2030

The note added that Goldman Sachs expects an aluminum surplus as Indonesian supply begins to rise from mid-2026.

The bank projected aluminum prices at around 2,350 dollars per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, with prices unlikely to return to current levels before 2030.

China to become net zinc exporter in 2026

Goldman Sachs said China is expected to shift from being a net importer of zinc to a net exporter in 2026, driven by rising domestic production.

The bank said: “We see higher local production in China shifting the country from deficit to surplus, while the market outside China moves into deficit. To balance the global market, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”

Cobalt supported by tighter supply, new Congo export quotas

In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs said new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo—which supplies 70% of the metal globally—are likely to lead to a market deficit in 2026, supporting prices amid tightening supply.

Lithium to remain low-priced through 2026 due to supply glut

The bank also projected lithium prices to stay low for longer, with an average price of 8,900 dollars per metric ton in 2026, noting that persistent oversupply will keep the market heavily saturated.

Federal Reserve

Speculation and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy returned to the forefront as concerns grew over the expected size of the rate cut at the upcoming December meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December dropped to 53.6% from 94.4% a month ago, while the probability of holding rates steady rose to 46.4% from 5.5%.

In the same context, Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, said Friday that his concerns about inflation—describing it as “far too hot”—far outweigh the narrower effects of tariffs, in remarks suggesting he may oppose further cuts at the December meeting if policymakers decide to lower short-term borrowing costs again.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.2% to 99.5 points as of 15:16 GMT, hitting a high of 99.5 and a low of 99.2.

In Monday’s trading, spot nickel prices fell 1.5% to 14,450 dollars per ton as of 15:27 GMT.

Bitcoin trimmed some of its losses after falling on Monday to its lowest level in more than six months, but it remained under pressure from declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and growing caution ahead of delayed U.S. economic data following the government shutdown.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 0.7% at 95,101.3 dollars as of 06:13 a.m. Eastern Time (1:13 GMT). It had dropped over the past 24 hours to 93,043.5 dollars, its lowest level since late April.

Bitcoin fell about 7% last week, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.

Bitcoin drops as rate-cut hopes fade

The decline comes as traders sharply reduced their bets on a Fed easing move in December. Futures pricing now reflects only about a 40% probability of a rate cut at the December 10–11 meeting, after odds had approached 90% earlier this month.

A growing number of Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitation about proceeding with further cuts, citing unstable inflation trends and a labor market that remains firm.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said last week she would be “reluctant to ease policy further” without clear evidence of economic deterioration.

Cryptocurrency markets, which had benefited earlier this year from strong rate-cut expectations, are now losing momentum.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen accelerating outflows, as investors unwind positions tied to expectations of a more accommodative monetary environment.

Sentiment was further weighed down by the blackout of U.S. economic data during the government shutdown, which left investors for weeks without key indicators.

The shutdown delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics releases, including the September nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Thursday.

Japan considers classifying crypto assets as financial products – Asahi

The Asahi newspaper reported that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is preparing to reclassify cryptocurrencies as financial products under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

Under the proposed rules, around 105 crypto assets— including Bitcoin and Ethereum—would be subject to insider-trading legislation, prohibiting transactions based on undisclosed information.

The agency also aims to reduce the tax rate on cryptocurrency gains to a flat 20%, in line with taxes on equities, down from a current rate that can exceed 55%, according to Asahi.

Crypto prices today: strong performance for altcoins, Ethereum jumps more than 4%

Most altcoins trimmed earlier losses to trade slightly lower.

Ethereum—the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency—fell 0.3% to 3,188.13 dollars.

Ripple (XRP), the third-largest cryptocurrency globally, was largely steady at 2.226 dollars.

Oil prices fell on Monday after loading operations resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub, following a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack.

Brent crude dropped 45 cents, or 0.7%, to 63.94 dollars a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 46 cents, or 0.8%, to 59.63 dollars.

Both benchmarks had risen more than 2% on Friday to end the week with modest gains, after exports were halted at Novorossiysk and at a facility operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, affecting the equivalent of 2% of global supply. Novorossiysk resumed oil loading on Sunday, according to industry sources and LSEG data.

Even so, Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure remain a central focus. Ukrainian forces said on Saturday they had struck the Ryazan oil refinery in Russia, while Ukraine’s General Staff said on Sunday that the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara region had also been hit.

Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, said: “Investors are trying to assess how Ukraine’s attacks will impact Russian crude exports in the long run.”

Investors are also monitoring the effect of Western sanctions on Russian supply and trade flows. The United States has imposed sanctions banning transactions with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, in an effort to push Moscow into peace talks over Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on legislation to sanction any country that engages in trade with Russia, adding that Iran may be added to the list. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed this month to raise production targets in December by 137,000 barrels per day, the same level set for October and November.

The group also agreed to halt increases in the first quarter of next year. A report by ING noted that the oil market is expected to remain in large surplus until 2026, but warned of rising supply risks from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian facilities, while also pointing to Iran’s seizure of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it crossed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for about 20 million barrels per day of global oil flows.

The latest trader-positioning data shows that speculators increased net long positions in ICE Brent futures by 12,636 contracts last week, bringing the total to 164,867 contracts as of last Tuesday.

ING said the increase was driven mainly by short-covering, adding that some participants are hesitant to hold short positions given the supply risks linked to uncertainty around sanctions.

At the same time, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expects oil prices to continue receiving support. “Rising oil-on-water levels have not yet translated into higher onshore inventories,” he said in a note. “While we expect prices to ease toward the lower end of the trading range in the coming months, we take a more constructive view for the second half of 2026.”